DAL Cowboys (-7) @ DET Lions – 79% Public Bet
If you bet on the Cowboys when they were seven point favorites when they went to New York to play the Jets, you probably felt pretty upset (I definitely did not, given they were my survivor pick so I was in fact very upset). Beyond that, if you were someone who bet on them then, you were probably a little hesitant to bet on them as a touchdown favorite, on the road, against a better opponent. Jeff Driksel is a serviceable enough backup, and with the Cowboys being unpredictable, anyone would understand why you might stay away from the game, or even put your chips down on a team playing at home with so many points.
In reality, you wouldn’t have been all that wrong to do so either given the eventual score was only an eight point spread. This game was going back and forth up until halftime until Dak Prescott threw a touchdown to Randall Cobb when the Cowboys’ win probability jumped to 86%. It’s also important to note that if the Lions had successfully converted the two-point conversion after their final touchdown at the 5-minute mark, we’d be singing a different tune. Squares squeaked one out so best not to read too much into it, but in this is game, a win is a win.
NE Patriots (-4.5) @ PHI Eagles – 74% Public Bet
I would’ve recommended to anyone to take the Patriots at -3 when the line opened (I myself put down on -3.5), but -4.5, the line it closed at, I would have been more skeptical, and the way the game flowed, Squares definitely ended up on the right side of what seemed like a coin flip. Between the Cowboys game and this game, I think this is a good time to talk about how to take results and add context. While yes, the Cowboys both won and covered, the only reason they did was because of a failed two-point conversion. In this case, the Eagles were driving down the field late in the fourth quarter only to turn the ball over on downs at the New England 26 yard-line.
Do each of these cases reflect a the Cowboys and the Patriots being lucky or is it a reflection of their defensive prowess? It’s up to you to decide, but in sports betting, there is always a matter of luck that comes along with strategy. I’m not going to tell you neither pick was wrong as they both won, and the Patriots have an incredibly stellar track record of covering; however, I am going to caution you as you move forward. The Squares pulled it out again, but don’t get too cocky because that’s how Vegas takes it all back.
NY Jets (+1.5) @ WAS Redskins – 69% Public Bet
Ah the good ol’ Public Dog! Even if they were only underdogs by a point and a half, they were still an underdog, and frankly I have no idea why. As bad as the Jets have been this year, the Redskins are bad on another level. Dwayne Haskins wasn’t terrible as he threw for over 200 yards, had two touchdowns, and only one interception; on the other hand, Sam Darnold had himself a day by throwing for almost 300 yards, four touchdowns, and only one interception.
Even though the Jets won this game by 17, it was actually a much bigger blowout than that as the Jets went up 34-3 at the start of the fourth quarter, and then the Redskins scored twice just so their pride wasn’t hurt (although, I’m pretty sure that ship has sailed). Just two bad teams facing each other with the public ultimately realizing that no matter how dysfunctional the Jets might be, at least their not actively chanting to sell the team without enough people in the stands to make it understandable.
DEN Broncos (+10) @ MIN Vikings – 68% Public Bet
I’m not sure how many times I’m going to have to repeat myself over the course of our relationship, but if there’s one thing I wish I could tattoo across every Square’s forehead it would be “YOU DON’T HAVE TO BET ON THIS GAME” (but like backwards so they could see it in the mirror). Aside from the fact that I am indeed a diehard Broncos fan, this was a complete stay-away game for me. Brandon Allen is still an unknown quantity, Kirk Cousins fluctuates more than Ross and Rachel’s relationship (THEY WERE ON A BREAK), and ten points is still an absurd amount for an NFL game.
What was an absolutely atrocious defense to start the year has quietly turned into a Top 5 overall defense, and Brandon Allen, however unknown he is, has been able to actually score points. Unlike last week in which the Ravens laying an ungodly amount still wasn’t ungodly enough for me to stay away, the Broncos aren’t actually a dumpster fire of a team, and the Sharps were rewarded for catching the edge Vegas gave them.
KC Chiefs (-5) @ LA Chargers – 70% Public Bet
Buenas tardes a todos! That means “Good evening everyone!” in Spanish (which I definitely used Google Translate for because I am a neanderthal who only knows one language) and it’s only fitting as we saw this AFC West divisional game in Mexico City. It always seems like the Chargers have at least one true home game taken from them, which one might think is unjust, but then you remember they actually have no true home games even when they’re in Los Angeles (that was a SICK BURN I know).
The Public decided to ride the Chiefs against the lowly Chargers, and they should be thankful they came away from this one a winner. The Chiefs were rightfully a favorite, but a five-point favorite seemed relatively high given their struggles on defense, Patrick Mahomes returning to Earth, and the fact that the Chargers don’t have a single loss this season that is by more than one score.
Even in spite of the fact that Philip Rivers threw FOUR interceptions, this was still a relatively close game that could have gone either way. But nonetheless, he still threw four interceptions, and when your QB throws four interceptions, that means you’re probably going to lose.