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Can You Guess Who’s an Overachiever?

Given the performance of each team so far, each team is expected to win a certain number of games. The most well-known equation to calculate this is called the “Pythagorean Projection.” Here at JPI Sports, we’ve created our own expectation algorithm. Like the Pythagorean Projection, we only factor in regular season. Here is how the teams stack up to what we expect them to be.


Surpass Expectations

First up, we have the teams who have surpassed our expectations. To calculate our expectations, we used data from all their games played up to this point.

Baltimore Ravens: Expectation – 10.35 wins | Reality – 12 wins

Buffalo Bills: Expectation – 9.07 wins| Reality – 10 wins

Green Bay Packers: Expectation – 8.62 wins | Reality – 11 wins

Houston Texans: Expectation – 8.13 wins | Reality – 9 wins

Kansas City Chiefs: Expectation – 9.29 wins | Reality – 10 wins

Minnesota Vikings: Expectations – 9.49 wins | Reality – 10 wins

New England Patriots: Expectation – 10.77 wins | Reality – 11 wins

New Orleans Saints: Expectation – 8.60 wins | Reality – 11 wins

San Francisco 49ers: Expectation – 9.9 wins | Reality – 11 wins

Seattle Seahawks: Expectation – 8.3 wins | Reality – 11 Wins


Right Where Expected

This section focuses on teams who are exactly where we expected them to be based off their performance.

Los Angeles Rams: Expectation – 8.32 wins | Reality – 8 wins

Oakland Raiders: Expectation – 6.64 wins | Reality – 6 wins

Pittsburgh Steelers: Expectation – 8.15 wins | Reality – 8 wins

Tennessee Titans: Expectation – 8.78 wins | Reality – 8 wins


So Close

This group is of teams who were only one win away from meeting expectations. Perhaps it was due to an unfortunately event, a bad call, or who knows? However, they are barely under the expectation.

Chicago Bears: Expectation – 8.04 wins | Reality – 7 wins

Cleveland Browns: Expectation – 7.59 wins | Reality – 6 wins

Jacksonville Jaguars: Expectation – 6.65 wins | Reality – 5 wins

New York Jets: Expectation – 6.69 wins | Reality – 5 wins

Philadelphia Eagles: Expectation – 8.08 wins | Reality – 7 wins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Expectation – 8.18 wins | Reality – 7 wins


Under

This group is for teams who are two or more wins under the expected. Maybe they have a much harder schedule or maybe they just aren’t having their year. Most of them are certainly out of playoffs. But some of them are still in the running.

Arizona Cardinals: Expectation – 7.00 wins | Reality – 4 wins

Atlanta Falcons: Expectation – 7.58 wins | Reality – 5 wins

Carolina Panthers: Expectation – 7.25 wins | Reality – 5 wins

Cincinnati Bengals: Expectation – 5.94 | Reality – 1 wins

Dallas Cowboys: Expectation – 9.08 wins | Reality – 7 wins

Denver Broncos: Expectation – 7.32 wins | Reality – 5 wins

Detroit Lions: Expectation – 7.19 wins | Reality – 3 wins

Indianapolis Colts: Expectation – 8.02 wins | Reality – 6 wins

Los Angeles Chargers: Expectation – 8.13 wins | Reality – 5 wins

Miami Dolphins: Expectation – 5.70 wins | Reality – 3 wins

New York Giants: Expectation – 6.80 wins | Reality – 3 wins

Washington Redskins: Expectation – 6.13 wins | Reality – 3 wins

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