I have to apologize to all of you. Yesterday was not fair. The reason being is that I made four picks that all could have been classified under the totem of “Degenerate’s Delight” and I only gave out one, and that’s the one that didn’t hit. I went 3-1, and of course I give out the one I’m most confident in, and that’s the one that loses. So from now on, I’m just going to let it all hang out so you can choose for yourself.
Thankfully, another day is upon us, and this particular day doesn’t have many games, but it does bring us a couple of tasty treats so let’s dive right in.
Sienna Saints @ Canisius Golden Griffins (+1)
The Saints face off against the Golden Griffins in Buffalo, NY this evening, and this game provides great value. A road favorite only laying a single point (which is basically the same thing as a pick ’em play), and the Saints look poised to take a good road win when they return home.
Saints are rated 200 in KenPom ratings while their opponent is rated 252; with a 50 spot spread on a pick ’em game is excellent value. Beyond that, where I find that the Saints are going to hold an edge is in the rebound game. Both teams are about even to the point that it’s not going to make a marginal difference other than in their rebounding. The Saints pull down just over 10 offensive RBG with an Offensive Rebound % (OR%) of about 31% while the Golden Griffins are only taking down 27% of potential offensive rebounds that come their way.
What really caught my eye was on the defensive side. The Saints average 26 defensive RBG with an overwhelming 80% Defensive Rebound % (DR%) as opposed to the Golden Griffins who only average 21 defensive RBG with a lowly 68.6% DR%. While the Saints might give up a few extra three pointers, I expect the rebounding advantage to go their way in a one point game.
Siena Saints -1
Fairfield Stags @ Iona Gaels (-4)
Another game in upstate New York (I actually don’t know where New Rochelle is, but if it’s not the city, I just assume it’s referred to as “upstate”) showcases the Stags going up against the Gaels in what should be a mediocre game at best. There’s relatively no reason the Gaels should be favored in this game let alone by four whole points. The Stags are ranked 241 in KenPom and the Gaels are ranked 252. While that’s not that big of a difference, when you have the opportunity to take four points on a higher rated team, you take them.
Furthermore, it seems like the Stags are just the better team. The Gaels are allowing their opponents to score on 53% of their possessions and hold a horrendous 40% 3PT% by itself. The Stags also have a big advantage in DR% as they take down 77% of defensive rebound opportunities while the Gaels only take down 70%.
The Stags don’t score as much as the Gaels, but they also don’t allow as many points either. Maybe Vegas knows something I don’t or maybe they’re asleep at the wheel. Either way, there’s no real reason you can pass up an opportunity to take four points on the clearly better team. If you’re feeling frisky on a Friday, you can put down a money line, but otherwise, I’m taking the Stags and the points.
Fairfield Stags +4
Overall Record: 24-15 +7.24U
Degenerate’s Delight: 1-1 -.073U
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